Analysts are eagerly waiting for the September quarter CPI data to be published later this week to get some indication of what the RBA might do with rates when the Board next meets on Melbourne Cup day. The labour force data was weak with annual jobs growth slowing to 1.4%. Unemployment has fallen from 5.7% to 5.6% but that is due to a lower labour participation rate which fell from 64.7% to 64.5%. The new RBA governor Phillip Lowe in a recent speech confirmed the bank's inflation target band of 2-3% over time but also stressed the labour market data as an important contributor shaping future monetary policy. With the weak labour market data out last week, the September quarter CPI data to be published later this week assumes importance. The bigger discussion that seems to be back on the forums is the housing "unaffordability" issue and what a rate cut might do to prices particularly for the first home buyer market and the mortgage lending market. RBA is therefore likely to tread very cautiously before deciding on a rate cut.
market data
| Australia Cash rate Australia 90 day bank bill Australia 10 y bond US 10y Govt bond AUD/USD AUD/EUR AUD/JPY AUD/CNY ASX 200 S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Shanghai Composite Brent Oil (USD per BBL) Gold Spot (USD per oz) Iron Ore | As at 21-Oct 1.50 1.74 2.28 1.73 0.7630 0.6998 79.43 5.1558 5,430 2,141 18,145 3,090 51.78 1,265 58.72 | As at 14-Oct 1.50 1.75 2.26 1.80 0.7582 0.6875 78.92 5.0989 5,434 2,132 18,138 3,063 51.95 1,251 57.28 |
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