The CPI numbers for the September quarter are out - all groups CPI registered an increase of 0.7% for the quarter compared to 0.4% in the June quarter and on a year on year basis CPI has gone up by 1.3%. In fact the quarterly increase has been the equal highest since the June quarter of 2015 and the previous quarter where it exceeded 0.7% was way back in December quarter of 2013. The numbers overwhelmingly suggest that there will be no rate cut from the RBA when it meets tomorrow on the Melbourne Cup day.
lowe set to downplay on cpi for future policy
Governor Lowe has indicated that CPI cannot be the main factor for the RBA to consider a move on rates. In fact, this is the shift that Lowe is advocating since the change of guard at the RBA when Lowe took over from Glenn Stevens. With shifts to growth and unemployment and more importantly the impact of a lower rates on the overheated housing market will increasingly play a major role as the RBA sets its monetary policy from now on. In that respect, the quarterly update to the monetary policy due to be released on Friday assumes great importance. Analysts are predicting that the rate cut cycle may well and truly be over with rebounding of commodity prices, sustainable employment data along with a rise in the quarterly CPI numbers.
market data
| Australia Cash rate Australia 90 day bank bill Australia 10 y bond US 10y Govt bond AUD/USD AUD/EUR AUD/JPY AUD/CNY ASX 200 S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Shanghai Composite Brent Oil (USD per BBL) Gold Spot (USD per oz) Iron Ore Nymex 62% | As at 28-Oct 1.50 1.75 2.37 1.85 0.7597 0.6966 79.89 5.1501 5,283 2,126 18,161 3,104 49.71 1,275 61.65 | As at 21-Oct 1.50 1.74 2.28 1.73 0.7630 0.6998 79.43 5.1558 5,430 2,141 18,145 3,090 51.78 1,265 56.92 |
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