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JOBS DATA SUGGESTS US RATE RISE MAY NOT BE IMMINENT

5/9/2016

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Markets were keen to analyse the US jobs data published last week. US unemployment remained at 4.9% and the jobs growth was 151,000 short of the expected 180,000. The July data however was revised upwards by 30,000 which may suggest that the growth was in line with the market. However, markets were expecting the data to grow substantially which would have meant a strong signal for the Federal Reserve to lift rates in September. Markets retreated and the USD fell against most major currencies. The AUD strengthened from the low point of 75.09 US cents on 30/8 to close at 75.59 US cents on 2/9 and is currently trading at 75.64 US cents.   

SYDNEY HOUSE PRICES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTH

The first weekend in spring always is watched keenly by markets here in Australia and the results did not disappoint vendors and real estate agents in Sydney. The auction clearance rates were 84% and in Melbourne, it was 79%. Although there were 537 auctions scheduled lower by 24% than last year's 815, clearance was up from last year's 75% to over 80% in Sydney. Median prices achieved in Sydney was up as well from $1.15 million to $1.27 million. Record low interest rates and these results point to continuation of a strong housing market in Sydney and the fact that there were fewer properties in the market than last year indicates that the market is likely to remain strong.

It is however a two speed economy as far as housing is concerned in Australia. The March quarter data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show Sydney and Melbourne prices increased year on year by over 9%, Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart by 4%, Adelaide by 3% whereas the prices have fallen by nearly 5% in Northern Territory and in Perth by 4%. Results of the June quarter will be published on 20 September. 

MARKET DATA

​
Australia Cash rate
Australia 90 day bank bill
Australia 10 y bond
US 10y Govt bond
AUD/USD
AUD/EUR
AUD/JPY
AUD/CNY
ASX 200
S&P 500
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Shanghai Composite
Brent Oil (USD per BBL)
Gold Spot (USD per oz)
Iron Ore
​As at 2-Sep
1.50
1.73
1.89
1.60
0.7559
0.6751
78.18
5.0489
5,372
2,179
18,491
3,067
46.83
1,323
59.39
​As at 26-Aug
1.50
1.73
1.91
1.63
0.7640
0.6765
76.71
5.0916
5,515
2,169
18,395
3,070
49.92
1,319
61.60
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